Oscars 2017 Predictions
The win probability for each award is calculated using the methodology described by Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. The win probability is based on the historical accuracy of the other awards predicting the Oscar winner over the last 25 years. It also uses whether or not the award voting memberships overlap with the Academy. Finally, it uses the number of nominations for each award type.
Each award is based on the square of its historical accuracy, and then double the score for overlapping membership. The nominations points are multiplied by 0.2 and added to the overall score. This final score is then normalized to convert the value to a percentage.
This viz was published on InfoData - Il Sole 24 Ore at this link:
Click below and go to the interactive Viz!
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