The win probability for each award is calculated using the methodology described by Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. The win probability is based on the historical accuracy of the other awards predicting the Oscar winner over the last 25 years. It also uses whether or not the award voting memberships overlap with the Academy. Finally, it uses the number of nominations for each award type.
Each award is based on the square of its historical accuracy, and then double the score for overlapping membership. The nominations points are multiplied by 0.2 and added to the overall score. This final score is then normalized to convert the value to a percentage.
This viz was published on InfoData - Il Sole 24 Ore at this link:
Before the night of the Academy Awards I tried to understand which were the most probable winner. I created two visualization. One that tried a predictive analysys, the other looking at the average rating of the movies candidates on Rotten Tomatoes.
Taking into consideration the average rating of the Rotten Tomatoes, for all the five directors of the Best Picture nominees in 2017 represent the highest point in career. The movies have the highest average rating of the professional experience of Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, Kenneth Lonergan, Mel Gibson and Denis Villeneuve.
But we come to the best film category. The most popular film is Moonlight, with an average score of 9.0 / 10. Behind it there is Manchester by the Sea with 8.9. La La Land is only in third place, with 8.6 points out of 10.
This is my viz, published on InfoData - Il Sole 24 Ore at this link:
Click below and go to the interactive Viz!
Oscar 2017 according to Rotten Tomatoes
Filippo Mastroianni
2/28/2017 10:50:00 AM
Filippo Mastroianni
2/28/2017 10:50:00 AM


